Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Leaders ruNet went for the money

In 2008 for ruNet has all chances to become a turning-historic. Leaders of the Russian segment of the worldwide network in the best traditions of the American Silicon Valley fall outside investment to western financial markets. This year, their primary placement of shares (IPO) on western stock exchanges are planning to hold two Russian Internet holding company. Not surprisingly, perhaps, that the first to enter the market with its shares decided portals, combines the search engines and a number of free web-services: and "Yandex". on the adopted plan already in the company in mid-summer plans to go on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). Audience portal is estimated to be 30.5 million people a month. consultants at the upcoming IPO will feature the world financial investors such as Citibank, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse. These banks and financial companies while trying not to give even rough estimates of business, now awaiting the results of examinations. Prudence western financiers can understand: to date there is no more or less established methodology for assessing Internet companies established in the post-Soviet space, and ruNet leaders are not the exception. In most emanate from its own estimates, according to which the company's capitalization (total cost including intangible assets) is $2 billion But it is solely their own opinion. According to the influential Russian newspaper "Kommersant", this estimate at least "fairly
optimistic ", but as the maximum - overstatement. Here, however, need to remember that back in November 2007, 2,6% for $26 million bought a South African Internet-holding Naspers. It turns out that even then the whole company was fully appreciated by foreign investors in a billion dollars. In doing so, in January 2007 - On the same Naspers paid for the 30 - the percentage of about $165 million It turns out that for part-year company went at least 1.8 times. But even assuming that the market value continues to grow old pace (which is unlikely), the ultimate figure to date is unlikely to exceed $1.2 billion So much now depends on how literacy PR-company among western investors will be able to hold top managers


As for the company "Yandex", there are planning to enter the world stock market in September, after IPO on the American Stock Exchange NASDAQ - as set ambitious IT-company. Monthly Audience "Yandex" exceeds 30 million people, is the second largest search engine in non-English speaking Internet (after the Chinese portal Baidu). Consultants "Yandex" in the upcoming IPO has appointed well-known financial organizations such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and the Russian bank "Renaissance Capital". According to preliminary estimates bankers, the value of "Yandex" could be about $5 billion Accordingly, the management company that owns the portal and search engine, expects to sell shares at $1.5 - $2 billion A more accurate assessment of business announce in September this year, virtually the eve of IPO.
However, the controversy surrounding the real market value "Yandex" still far from complete. Most recently, in April this year, the company won 6 - first place in the ranking of 25 most expensive Internet start peace - it has prepared a professional magazine Silicon Alley Insider (SAI). Specialists SAI rated "Yandex" in the $3 billion Significantly, these figures confirm the Russian and independent analysts. For example, in an interview with the newspaper "Vedomosti" Bank analyst "Urasib" Konstantin Belov called the $5 billion "over-ambitious assessment". A bank UniCredit analyst Anna Kurbatova appreciated "Yandex" in the $2.5 - $3 billion And all the experts interviewed by the newspaper correspondents, agreed that attract the amount of $1.5 - $2 billion "Yandex" will, to put it mildly, difficult.

Know versus

Following the completion of the deployment issue of shares "Yandex" and at stock exchanges will be traded all the "big three" Russian leaders of Internet search - Rambler Media Holding went on the London Stock Exchange (Section AIM) a few years ago. Most Russian analysts still believe that and "Yandex", and extremely fortunate to have chosen the time of its IPO. Now Russia's Internet business is transferred to the stage of maturity, but the audience of Internet holdings continues its steady growth. The global financial crisis, in turn, several poutih, and stock indices, albeit rather slowly, but began to grow again. Besides,, "Yandex" and Rambler with all desire a long time can not be called "start" - a mature company with a good business reputation and great cash flow. There is no doubt that Russian companies will seek to repeat the fate of successful Google IPO American or Chinese Baidu. And we remember how it was.

American search engine Google IPO took place on August 19, 2004 and was the most spectacular event in the IT-industry of the time. As a result of the capitalization of the company issuing the shares was $23.1 billion At that time it was more than the market value of online bookstore Amazon ($15,4 billion), but less than the value of Yahoo ($38,2 billion). Meanwhile, experts are still arguing how successful then actually went IPO Google. Estimates for a variety of sound - from enthusiastic to quite provalnyh. Tu story really difficult to assess unequivocally. In 2004 - m whole world was without a mind of "the phenomenon of Google". Investors are not without the help of the media to inspire ourselves that way Google on the stock market will give a new "boom dotkomov", and repeated events, 1997-2000. Owners Google said the starting price of its shares at $108 - $135 per piece and is already preparing to disrupt a huge kush. However, the founders of Google, despite the ban to give comments to the press IPO, still acclaimed interview published in the magazine Playboy. As a consequence of commission for the U.S. Securities and Exchange threatens to ban the IPO company. This did not happen, but when opened subscription, unexpectedly turned out that the demand for shares far below expectations. Then Sergey Brin and Larry Page have resorted to stopgap measures - for just one day before the start of IPO stock price was reduced to $85 per piece. It was originally estimated and reduced to selling volume of shares - to $3.47 billion to $1.6 billion It was a good move: for the first two months of stock market trades shares in the company rose in price by more than 4 times.

This story is largely repeated in August 2005, when the primary placement of shares on the exchange of Chinese search engine Baidu. His, by the way, not without reason called the Chinese Google. Indeed, the biggest non-English language search engine in its time copied not only the American business model Google, but even the general appearance of web-site. Then, in 2005 - m, bidding shares of Baidu in high-tech NASDAQ stock market started at $27 per piece. But by the end of the first day of trading securities Chinese portal soared in price to 354% - to $124. The next day the shares reached in the $155 mark, putting growth on record in the history of NASDAQ. When the hype around Baidu has reached its limit, the market assessed the company $4.7 billion Now difficult to say whether "Yandex" either noisy repeat the success of its IPO of American and Chinese colleagues. Hardly, of course, although theoretically possible that all - is too unpredictable IT-market. But the fact that this year finally emerge IT-sector Russian stock market - certainly.

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