Friday, November 21, 2008

Artificial intelligence. Time is running, things change ...

Artificial IntelligenceIn a regular talk show parents resent her son, who in his spare time immersed in the virtual world they chose. But when it advised to read Gogol, Dumas, Pushkin ... Eventually, the son does not stand and said that the same book - it also initially by worlds than dumbfound present. Resisting generations? No, ordinary society. In this case, is worth recalling that the «techno-» translation from Greek means nothing as «skill». Many are serious or very wary of advances in artificial intelligence, and some nedoponimayut the importance of what is happening in this segment now, to the extent necessary training of our society to introduce a computer as integral participants.

In fact, nothing so often scold young people for the excessive enthusiasm for computer technology. The fact is that at the games, advanced training programs, mathematical simulations otkatyvayutsya new levels and mechanisms of interaction, and one can say how intimidating it may sound, the emergence of «digital», or «technical», a society in which computers and People will speak on equal terms. No, this is not fiction, and observation. And this is not about the community and society. Even now, all the selected strategy and tactics in any of the branches can be qualitatively evaluate both tangible and position, and instead of intuitive behavior is almost always welcomed precise mathematical calculation. For example, today most standard task in the study of artificial intelligence is to find the optimal route to the selected card. Where once (20-40 years) in this regard were serious scientific research, it is such an operation is typical. A methodology of some standard search strategies, a search trees, etc. But, in fact, it is the most trivial case - if you want such calculations can make ordinary people do not have high intellectual ability. While many have relied solely on computer programs. But there are challenges and much more difficult. Furthermore, their solutions clearly indicate the existence of human intellectual limit, which is better not to count the number of neurons in our brains, comparing with the transistor did ...


For example, we know that the master of sport of chess can get the situation on several moves ahead. Initially, it seems, everything is easy, but let's think: what does it mean mathematically? Each course includes the possibility of a change of position by an average of 40 options. On this basis, the calculation of the two moves in advance, we mean 40 square options for the development of the situation, that is 1600. If the account is five moves ahead, we get 40 in the fifth degree options, and that if record numbers, 102,400,000. What is so interesting to decide exactly chess challenge? In fact, even if we read the program and choose the best course, actually look at the influence of unknown program interface player to achieve the necessary results - a victory. To trim branches wasted searching, and hence reduce the number of calculations as part of this software provides special units evaluation functions. And they not only calculate economic assessment on the number of pieces on the board, because the balance of power largely depends on the position. Therefore, with each course guided by a multitude of options. Moreover, for a qualitative assessment of a computer program (or a professional player) must think not only for ourselves but for the opponent, that is, expect the best options and with his hand. Then the evaluation will be the best quality. The most interesting in this regard are the competition of various programs. It is not a secret that most of them involves its own structure and organization of embedded algorithms, though sometimes made on the same methodology. And interestingly, in this case one thing: playing the program ... does not know how set up another, not even suspects in what programming language is written and based on a computer running. All the interaction takes place only within the chessboard - the playing field, or, more technical language, a common interface interactions. Yes, many professionals are now remembered new technologies in programming - for example, komponentorientirovannoe or interfeysnoorientirovannoe. Practically this is at stake. But interfeysnoorientirovannoe programming (the same technology COM) implies the existence of statements, and the leading elements of the system. In the case of chess challenge II program is the subordination of the opponent, making it known element of its scheme (wins strong), although initially they were in equal positions. All the most part depends on the quality of embedded algorithms and - most importantly - the implementation of the evaluation function.

A bit unclear, with the same here chess against our home? OK. Let's say we expect a complex economic model, which is to predict the occurrence of crises as well as opportunities to exit from them. In the recording you want to take a huge number of different parameters are often tightly intertwined, and in some cases, these relationships can be implicitly, but there. For example: to improve the standard of living> fertility> demand for foreign labor> activity of a new culture> changing political situation. And this is only one possible chain relationship. Thus, in the simple words, if a particular course has a direct impact on the system. Profitable or not? This requires a comprehensive assessment system, not only material, to estimate what we are accustomed, but also position. Moreover, the calculation should include not only current but also future. Interaction between the modules through a common interface to the positions of equal (rather than lead or led) also deserves separate attention. For example, we have a program that calculates the best action to the above conversation. But there is another program, which is responsible for any segment of agriculture. For example, Calculates the efficiency of fertilizers, the dependence of the impact of this action on the environment, etc. And the main task of their interaction is respect for balance and develop solutions. Using the lead and statement of the team will be «top-down», and this old method, almost implying absence II itself. If they communicate on an equal footing, the decision is produced jointly about the way it happens in the chess game. For example, if the first system warns such a course, it verifies that behaves like the other, and how this action, in the end, will affect its own parameters, their condition. After all, in fact, not without such discipline, such as artificial intelligence, takes a lot of mathematical statistics and analysis. This is its strong structural blocks. And why are we actively remember the chess? The point is that a decision in this situation very much like search algorithm better progress with the choice of the best branches, forming stacks LIFO, etc.

In conclusion

Trivial question of whether to transfer management control now? This is more of the teleprogrammam sensations. The transfer happening naturally, for example, the automation of many individual specialization and production processes. With the transfer of full control ... In order to beat the best players of the World Chess (people with uncommon intelligence), developers of programs will take about 50-60 years. And how, for example, for your contemporaries, would read such a question: DeepBlue computer can replace world champion chess? Most answer that could, despite the fundamental difference and the car. Therefore, the most important moment in the formation of new generations is the realization of full and mutual communication between human society and computer systems, which have become an integral part of our contemporaries.

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