Tuesday, July 1, 2008

The market for mobile communication: change places summands

Progress is not in place, and over the past few years, cellular communication has proven already covered more than half the population of Earth. One of the "side effects" has been rapid saturation of the relevant markets. Back in 2000-2001, investment in mobile communication networks were considered possibly the most profitable in the IT-industry. But today the situation variables in a radically. Earnings before that investors are not sufficiently developed in search of "mobile" market picks up the most exotic places in the world.

A good example of such an investor is the millionaire Egyptian Naguib Saviris that owns the majority of shares in Egypt's largest cellular operator Orascom Telecom. Trying to any cost to enter new markets, he even attempted to obtain 25 - year license for cellular communications in North Korea. Subsequently, in an interview Naguib Saviris jokes that his latest business plan born of desperation. Quote: "I wanted to show that no other options. Once a search of demand accounted go to North Korea, cause bad ". In the early stages of development of global mobile communications network in the world clearly dominated by operators and investors from Europe and - to a lesser degree - the United States. But today the situation is that European and North American markets more than saturated. The same, however, as a very lucrative markets of Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As a result, Western operators, particularly in the global cell dominate the market, now risk being in the second line. As leaders will be only those who promptly launched a program of investing in developing markets. However, about them below. Now more and more weight gain cellular companies - come from third world countries. They usually serve in the role of investors, builders and in the role of infrastructure networks including cellular communications network 3G. Arun Sarin - Director General of the world's largest cellular operator by revenue Vodafone - once told reporters: "Three quarters of all new subscribers, revenue and profits come from developing countries". Indeed, out of ten telecommunications companies with the largest capitalization in the world occurred just two of these countries. This is the Chinese government and China Mobile Latin American Corporation America Movil. Second, by the way, the planet is controlled by the richest man - Mexican mediabaronom Carlos Slim. It is expected that over the next decade companies from Africa, Asia and Latin America Dogonyat on the market value of the current industry leaders.

But let us return to European mobile communications market participants. Experts estimate that to date among Europeans is it good growth prospects that the British Vodafone and Spanish Telefonica - these two companies went on time to conquer emerging markets. During the period of rapid growth Telefonica lot of funds invested in Latin American markets. As a result, the region now provides about a third of revenue and core sales growth Telefonica. In turn, the company Vodafone in 2007 signed a contract on the purchase of $ 10.9 billion for a controlling stake Hutchison Essar - the fourth of the number of subscribers of cellular operator in India. To date, this is the largest of the acquisitions made by Western operators in developing countries. In India, cellular market is growing faster than anywhere else in the world. Not coincidentally same company Nokia not only creates a special budget model specifically for the Indian market, but also opens in this country own assembly production. After all, to India in this case is to add such countries, like Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, etc. In general, the South Asian market is huge. Phone as long as there is only 21% of local residents, and the number of subscribers a monthly increase of 8 million Thanks to timely investment made by more than half of Vodafone subscribers today occur in developing countries.

But are today the world's largest mobile service provider market - China. This year the Chinese market we will see an ambitious restructuring: Government plans to split into the second part of the number of subscribers of cellular operator country - company China Unicom. China Unicom - the owner of two networks (CDMA standards and GSM), and now they are to be divided between the major Chinese operators of fixed telephony - companies China Telecom and China Netcom. With such a manoeuvre Chinese authorities want to limit the dominance of China Mobile, which now controls 70% of the regional cellular market. Meanwhile, this market is far from saturation: only 40% of Chinese enjoy cellular phones. The situation on the Chinese market is more confused because formally prohibits foreign companies to control Chinese assets. We have to operate indirect means, and here is one result: Vodafone share price in China Mobile (3,3%) since the purchase has grown fourfold. A Telefonica belongs to 7,2% China Netcom, and this year the company plans to increase its share to 10%. In turn, cellular operators from China and other Asian countries do not themselves away to act as investors in the core markets. For example, China Mobile in 2007, Pakistan bought Paktel and is not going to dwell on this. Competition may well be a Chinese Sunil Bharti Mittal, who took fifth line in the list of richest people in India. Controlled them Bharti Airtel - the largest cellular operator of India (57 million subscribers); last year, the company also acquired a license to work in Sri Lanka and has plans of expansion into other Asian markets. Mittal does not hide its plans to build panaziatskuyu telecommunications empire and is ready to fight for it with the Chinese. His call on the markets of Asia and Russia is preparing to say AFK "System", which in 2007 bought a controlling stake in Indian company Shyam Telelink.

As is now said to journalists Alexander Goncharuk, president of "systems", AFK expects to enter the five largest by number of subscribers of cellular holdings world. Such investor interest and desire for redivision of the market naturally led to the assets of cellular communications companies in developing countries in the past two years went sharply. For example, Vodafone bought Hutchison Essar, based on the assessment of Indian companies in the $ 18.8 billion - is 17 times higher than its projected target for 2008 EBITDA. Capitalization of Western European cellular companies rarely exceeds their EBITDA more than 6 times. And the last. According to market experts, a reverse process - Parish "mobile" companies in third world markets in Europe and the U.S. - is hardly possible. For example, in 2006 China Mobile has already tried to buy Luxembourg Millicom (providing cellular communications services in Asia, Africa and Latin America), but failed. In particular, employees of Chinese companies have problems with obtaining visas necessary for the inspection of enterprises in Latin America. I recall that the countries of the region during the cold war were openly antikitayskuyu position, supporting the Government of Taiwan. Thus, hardly even the most powerful cellular companies from China and India in the foreseeable future will be able to step far beyond their regions. Still, to some extent redivision of the market of cellular communication is possible even in the countries of Eastern Europe. This is confirmed in particular transactions, which are involved in Belarusian cellular operators. But this is quite another story.

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